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October passed without a bottom. Why the window shifts to December and January
The three completed crypto cycles bottomed on 14 January, 15 December and 21 November. That isn't coincidence and there are specific reasons. But the US elections aren't one of them — and explaining why is more useful than the forecast itself.
We'll start with something we owe the reader.
On October 8 we wrote that Bitcoin had reclaimed its 50-week moving average — the signal that marked the bottom in four of five bear markets. We stated explicitly what would invalidate it: a weekly close back below that average. On November 1 we noted the signal was in question.
Today the thesis is invalidated. Bitcoin trades near $76,000, well below the 50-week average. The signal turned out to be the one case in five where it doesn't hold.
We say it plainly, because a forecast remembered only when it works isn't analysis, it's advertising. Now to the more interesting question: if October passed without a bottom, when?
What the three completed cycles show
Bitcoin has only three completed full cycles with a clear bottom. Here they are, with exact dates and daily closing prices:
- 14 January 2015 — $171.41
- 15 December 2018 — $3,179.54
- 21 November 2022 — $15,766
January, December, late November. Three out of three fall inside a window running from mid-November to mid-January.
That's a small sample and we'll say so again below. But as an observation it's consistent enough to deserve an explanation rather than dismissal as coincidence.
Why October was the logical expectation
The other way to measure is from the top down. The distance between a cycle top and its bottom across the previous three cycles was roughly twelve to thirteen and a half months.
This cycle's top was 6 October 2025, at roughly $124,700–126,000 depending on the source. Twelve months later is October 2026 — that's where the expectation came from.
What happened instead: the lowest close since the top remains $58,526 on 30 June 2026, and October closed down 7.4% without coming near that level.
So there are two possibilities. Either the bottom was already set on 30 June and simply doesn't look like one, because the environment remains bearish. Or the bottom is still ahead, and by analogy with previous cycles the most likely window is now December–January.
Now, honestly, about the elections
Here we need to be precise, because the explanation currently circulating doesn't survive checking.
The US congressional elections were held on 3 November 2026. Democrats won both chambers. Bitcoin fell to around $75,600 on the night of the results, then recovered above $78,000.
The problem with the claim that the elections postponed the cycle is chronological: October finished before the elections. The 7.4% October decline happened while the vote was still ahead. An event on 3 November cannot be the cause of what happened in October.
Analysts were clear on this point themselves. The market had largely priced a Democratic sweep in advance, implied volatility fell after the result — Bitcoin's DVOL dropped 6% and the VIX 10% — and the consensus was that Fed policy, Treasury yields, dollar liquidity and ETF flows matter more for Bitcoin than the election outcome.
The difference between 'it happened before' and 'it was the cause' is the only thing separating analysis from storytelling. Markets produce an enormous quantity of coincidences, and most after-the-fact explanations are simply helping themselves to one.
But the elections do matter — just differently
What the elections changed isn't direction. It's the absence of a catalyst.
The market had spent months waiting on US regulatory clarity — above all progress on the CLARITY Act. With the new composition of Congress, that progress is expected to be slower. CoinShares noted that Bitcoin is less exposed to this risk than exchanges and token issuers, but the effect is real.
The distinction matters. The elections didn't push the market down — they removed one of the reasons for it to go up. And a market with no upside catalyst, in a bearish structure, simply keeps building a base. That's precisely what extends the period and pushes the window forward.
The four real mechanisms behind December and January
Now the specific reasons the historical bottoms cluster in this period. None of them has anything to do with politics.
1. Year-end tax-loss selling
This is the strongest and most concrete mechanism.
US investors realise losses before 31 December to offset them against their tax base. That produces selling which doesn't depend on the seller's opinion of Bitcoin. Someone who believes in the asset sells anyway, because they need the loss this year.
We've written before that markets don't bottom on bad news but on forced selling. Tax-loss selling is forced selling with a deadline. And selling with a deadline has the property of ending — and when it ends, so does the pressure.
That's also why January looks different from December. The same positions are frequently bought back in January, once the tax motive is spent.
2. Annual portfolio rebalancing
Funds rearrange positions at year-end and service redemption requests. Both produce selling driven by the calendar rather than by conviction.
3. Thin liquidity around the holidays
Volumes drop sharply through the second half of December. Less liquidity means the same order flow moves price further. That's why December moves often look more dramatic than they are in substance — and why final capitulation frequently happens exactly there.
4. A new year brings new capital
January is when fresh allocations arrive — institutional budgets, personal contributions, redrawn strategies. It's the weakest of the four mechanisms, but it's real, and it explains why rebounds often begin early in the year.
The counterargument you should know about
Not every cycle model points to December.
Some analytical frameworks measure the bottom relative to the next halving rather than to the top. Under those, this cycle's bottom window is 15 October – 17 November 2026, conditional on Bitcoin closing below $58,526 within it.
From roughly $76,000 today, that would require a fall of nearly 23% in a matter of days. If it doesn't happen, that model simply fails for the current cycle — and its authors say so openly.
So we have two cycle models pointing in different directions. One is near the end of its window and will probably lapse. The other points to December–January. That's the state of knowledge right now, and anyone presenting it to you as certainty is adding confidence the data doesn't support.
Add to that the fact that three cycles are three observations. In any other field, three observations would prove nothing.
What I'm watching specifically
The levels as they stand:
- $75,600 – $76,000 — the support tested on election night. While it holds, the decline is controlled.
- $79,500 — first resistance, followed by the psychological $80,000.
- $58,526 — the 30 June low. Until that breaks, the thesis that the bottom is already behind us stays alive.
Additional context worth noting: ETFs recorded outflows of roughly $1.16 billion across three sessions. And by one observation from Talos, in three of the last five years in which October closed down, November also finished negative. October 2026 closed down 7.4%.
How to act on information like this
The conclusion isn't 'wait until December.' That would be the same mistake in reverse — betting on a precision nobody has.
If you're working with a horizon beyond a year, the sensible approach is a laddered entry across the next two or three months without trying to hit a specific date. With that approach you don't need to be right about the day. If the bottom was June, you're participating. If it's December, you buy cheaper with the remaining tranches.
If you're a trader, the only thing that changes is an expectation of elevated volatility around mid-December, in thin liquidity. That means smaller size, not larger.
And most importantly: three historical bottoms in December and January are an interesting observation, not a timetable. The market doesn't know the three previous cycles bottomed around now, and it owes nobody a repeat.
Risk notice: This article is informational and analytical in nature, expresses the author's personal opinion, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to transact. The levels and cycle models cited are analytical reference points based on an extremely small sample of three completed cycles, and do not guarantee future results. Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry the risk of total loss of invested capital. Market data as of 7 November 2026 and changes quickly. Make decisions only after your own research and in line with your personal financial situation.