Анализатор подготвя план за биткойн при колеблив пазар / Analyst preparing a Bitcoin plan amid market uncertainty

Wait for a retest of the low, or buy? My view of the crypto market right now

Ten days after this cycle's strongest technical signal, the market gave part of the move back. Here's what I'm watching, at which levels, and why the question in the headline says more about the person asking than about the market.

Ten days ago I wrote that Bitcoin had reclaimed its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks — the signal that marked the bottom in four of five bear markets. Price was around $83,800 at the time.

Since then it reached $86,300, turned back, and by Friday was trading near $81,900. Over the weekend there was a sharp drop that recovered within hours.

And the question I've been getting every day for the past week is always the same one: do I buy now, or wait for the market to retest the low?

Where we actually are

Before the opinion, the facts. They're more useful and anyone can check them.

  • Current price: around $81,900, roughly 35% below the high of about $126,000 set in early October 2025.
  • Support zone: $81,000 – $82,000. The market has tested it repeatedly over the past fortnight and broken below it at times.
  • Next support: around $80,100.
  • The 50-week average: approximately $78,800. That's the line discussed on October 8, and it hasn't been lost yet.
  • Resistance: $86,300, the high from the start of the month.

Through October, total crypto derivatives liquidations exceeded $1 billion at points, with between 80% and 90% of them long positions. One separate flush took out $771 million, almost entirely longs. Futures open interest afterwards fell to roughly $52.7 billion.

Mid-month, on a move back to $82,000, $20 million of short positions were liquidated. That's a small number, but it says something important: after the decline, positioning had flipped bearish, and a bounce now has someone to catch offside.

Meanwhile US spot ETFs recorded net outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars in a single week, and the macro backdrop isn't helping — rising oil, fresh US inflation data, and higher Treasury yields.

Why 'wait or buy' is the wrong question as posed

I'll be blunt here, because this is the most useful thing in the article.

'Should I wait or should I buy' implies those are the two available answers. They aren't. They're the two available impulses, and between them sits a third thing most people never articulate: wait for what, specifically.

I've watched this for twelve years and the difference is always the same.

Someone without a framework experiences this question as tension. Tension is unpleasant and must be ended, so they end it the fastest way available — they buy the moment they feel conviction, or they panic the moment price drops. Either way, the decision was made by the emotion rather than by them.

Someone with a framework doesn't feel the same tension, because for them there's no open question. They've already written it down: I buy at this level, at this size, and I exit at that one. Nothing gets decided in the moment — it was all decided in advance, and now they simply wait.

Waiting only looks like inaction from the outside. It's actually the most active part of the work, because it's the only time decisions get made calmly.

So I'd turn the question around. Not 'do I wait or buy,' but: if price reaches $78,800, what exactly do I do? And what if it reaches $90,000 without ever waiting for me? If you have a written answer for both, the headline question doesn't apply to you. If you don't, it isn't solved by a forecast — it's solved by fifteen minutes with a sheet of paper.

My view — honestly, and with numbers

Now the specifics I promised.

I think the June 30 low is most likely the low of this cycle. Not because of a feeling, but because the 50-week average was reclaimed and historically that has held in four of five bear markets. It's the strongest signal this cycle has produced.

At the same time, I think a move down to retest is not merely possible but more likely than a direct rally. Three reasons:

  • Markets almost always return to check a level they've just crossed. A move back to $78,800 – $80,100 would be entirely normal behaviour, not a refutation of the thesis.
  • ETF flows are negative. Until that turns, every rally meets a seller.
  • The macro backdrop is currently working against risk assets, and crypto still moves with them.

And here's what matters: those two views don't contradict each other. The bottom can be in and there can still be another 5–10% downside. Most people treat 'the bottom is behind us' and 'it only goes up from here' as the same sentence. They aren't.

What I actually do in practice

I don't wait for one level and I don't buy everything at once. Both are bets on a precision nobody has.

The approach I use, and the one I'd suggest to anyone with an investment horizon, is splitting into tranches:

  • A tranche at current levels, around $81,000 – $82,000. If it goes up from here, I'm participating.
  • A tranche at $78,000 – $79,000, a test of the 50-week average. That's the level the thesis expects to hold.
  • A tranche at $70,000 – $72,000, if the market gets there. That's the zone below which the thesis starts to break, which is precisely why capital should be left for it.

The logic is simple and has nothing to do with prediction. With this approach I don't need to be right. If the bottom is behind us, I participate with the first tranche. If there's further downside, I buy cheaper with the rest. The only scenario where I lose out is price running away before I've deployed everything — and that's an acceptable price for not depending on precision.

What I don't do: put everything in at $82,000 on the argument that it's cheap relative to $126,000. 'Cheap relative to the high' is the most expensive argument in investing.

When I'll change my mind

Any thesis without conditions for abandonment is a belief, not analysis. Here are mine.

I drop the thesis if:

  • There's a weekly close back below the 50-week average. That invalidates the signal everything rests on.
  • Price breaks $70,000 and holds below that zone.
  • ETF outflows deepen and persist for months rather than weeks.

My conviction increases if:

  • A run of weekly closes above $82,000 with declining volatility.
  • A move back to $78,000 – $80,000 that gets bought quickly and on volume. A test that holds is a stronger signal than no test at all.
  • ETF flows turning positive for several consecutive weeks.

I'll note the other side too. There are serious analysts who allow for a correction toward $68,000 before any talk of $125,000. Their view isn't absurd and I don't dismiss it. I simply think that with a laddered entry I don't have to choose between their forecast and mine — both are served.

One sentence, if you have no time for the rest

The difference between people who make money in a market like this and people who don't is rarely the forecast. It's that one group knew what they'd do at $78,000 and at $90,000 before the market got there, while the other learned their decision at the moment price suggested it to them.

The market doesn't pay you for being right. It pays you for being prepared.

Risk notice: This article is informational and analytical in nature, expresses the author's personal opinion, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to transact. The levels cited are analytical reference points, not trading signals. Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry the risk of total loss of invested capital. Market data as of October 18, 2026 and changes quickly. Make decisions only after your own research and in line with your personal financial situation.